Saturday, September 29, 2012

Hospital completion date put back as discussions continue

So it's happened yet again! (Thornbury Gazette, Thursday, September 27, 2012)

Why am I not surprised? Simply because it's happened before and it will happen again - the decision on the new hospital at Southmead, now work in progress and hopefully soon to be operational, was a classic example of obfuscation and delay. Whether we like it or not, both politicians and planners have a vested interest in keeping issues alive rather than nailing them.

Let me explain what I mean.

Politicians, whether local councillors or MPs, love nothing more than a battle. It makes headlines and keeps them in the public eye. It builds their credentials for the next election. Once the battle's won that's the end of the headlines and they have to look for the next cause. So they have a vested interest in prolonging the fight by picking on every minor issue and using the protest groups as cannon fodder.

Planners also have an interest in delaying decisions. In these difficult times they don't have the money to spend so they will seize every opportunity to delay investment. Every £1 million deferred is £1 million 'saving' this year.

What's really sad is that the well-intentioned actions of protest groups are used as excuses for delay. And inaction of the majority allows politicians and planners to get away with it. Once again the people of Thornbury are left wondering when they will ever benefit from a modern health centre with diagnostic services and a minor injury unit.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Thornbury Police Station - ripe for redevelopment?

So the police station in Thornbury is 'under offer'! Perhaps it will continue as offices but it's been on the market for over a year now so a change of use is possible so my money is on demolition and building new homes and/or a care home rather than commercial use. Watch this space.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Thornbury's energy consumption - profligate or miserly?

While idly scanning through the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) website, as one does, I came upon a gem - the National Heat Map. Commissioned by DECC, the Centre for Sustainable Energy has created a map showing heat use by area in England.

Just zoom in to Thornbury, choose whether you want to see total, commercial, residential or industrial heat density. I've set this link so that you can see total heat consumption for England, the Bristol area and Thornbury. Please remember that the colours in each map represent relative rather than absolute values so you'll need to look at the legend for each map. Also remember that heat density is presented per unit of land area, so the jury's out on whether Thornbury folk are profligate or miserly with their use of energy!

Total heat map for Thornbury:

Friday, September 14, 2012

Steve Webb's view on the Severn Barrage

I contacted Steve Webb MP via his website on 19th August as follows:

'In view of your welcoming the apparent abandonment of Horizon's plans for Oldbury Power Station, I would be grateful to hear your views on how future needs for electricity generation will be met and particularly how you perceive the resurrection of proposals for the Severn Barrage.'

I received a prompt acknowledgement from a case worker and then his response which is reproduced in full at the foot of this page.

Yet again Mr Webb displays his tendency to defer big decisions in favour of muddling through. Sadly this is nothing new, witness his condemnation in January 2009 of Ed Miliband , then Secretary for Energy and Climate Change, who had just announced five preferred options to generate green energy from the river, which also included two smaller barrages and two lagoon schemes. Mr Webb's response then was to advocate consideration of more options, prove feasibility with pilot schemes, and no reasonable prospect for power generation until well into the 2020s. So guess what, nearly three years have passed and the timescale for generating power from the barrage is heading for the 2030s. Taken to the extreme this philosophy will leave us in the dark some time very soon!

So Mr Webb's solution is gas. We will become increasingly dependent on this fuel for electricity supply, not to mention heating and transport. Yes it releases less CO2 than coal or oil so that's good news. Sadly it leaves us increasingly hostage to countries which are politically unstable and less favourable to the West than we might like. Luckily there is an alternative. We can raise the pace of exploration for shale gas which looks to be plentiful under the UK and the search is on locally. I wonder how Thornbury folk will respond to fracking in the vicinity? I'll come back to that soon.

Steve Webb's letter:

'Dear Mr. Rodliffe,

Thank you for your e-mail regarding meeting our future energy needs, which I have just read on my return from a family holiday.

In brief, my view is that we need a diverse range of energy sources to sustain us over the coming decades, including to reduce our reliance over the long-term on imported and increasingly expensive oil and in order to reduce our CO2 emissions in line with national and international agreements.

By far the best first step in my view is much greater effort at energy conservation and energy efficiency. Rather than build more and more generating capacity simply to continue to be as profligate as we currently are with energy, we should first prioritise using the energy that we do generate much more efficiently. There is huge potential for using subsidies, taxes and regulations to encourage energy-efficient behaviour and this can be cost-effective for the individual as well as for us as a nation. Even now the regulations on the energy efficiency of new homes are less strict than in many other countries, and the energy efficiency of the existing housing stock still leaves a great deal to be desired. This is to say nothing of public buildings such as schools and hospitals where energy is often extensively wasted.

In terms of generating capacity, I am sure that we will need to rely heavily on gas – ideally with carbon capture – for decades to come, but I also want to see a diverse range of renewable sources. This must include everything from continuing the growth in domestic renewables such as solar panels to large-scale off-shore wind and wave infrastructure projects. Whilst there is a big upfront capital cost to many of these projects, they will in due course generate relatively cheap and reliable energy, especially relative to what I anticipate will be the ever escalating cost of crude oil.

I hope that this is helpful in setting out my views.

With best wishes,
Steve Webb MP '

More on the Severn Barrage

So nearly a month after the plans were announced nationally, an article titled 'Severn barrage plan is resurrected' makes its way into the Thornbury Gazette, Thursday, September 13, 2012.

Somewhat surprisingly in view of the rabid anti-windpower stories reported elsewhere in this issue, it only carries the views of one sceptical councillor, a past chairman of the Severn Estuary Partnership, and the concerned chief executive at the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust at Slimbridge. However, it does ask for reader's views so I await the next issue with interest.

Saturday, September 01, 2012

St Mary Centre Thornbury for sale?

Lots of work going on down in St Mary Centre. New railings here, coats of paint there. Does this mean that Peer Group are tarting it up for a quick sale?

Perhaps it's just routine renovation to keep the empty shops lettable and to generate more rent. But what if Peer Group have decided that their business model isn't working in Thornbury any more?

Their strategy is:

" .... to secure growth through the asset management of the existing portfolio and the acquisition of carefully chosen new investment and development opportunities."

So do they view the Centre as an appreciating capital asset or as a revenue stream from lettings? If they've lost confidence in future lettings then I wouldn't be surprised to see a swift sale as they seek to rescue whatever gains they've made.

If my surmise is correct it will be interesting to see who buys them out - Americans, Germans, Chinese or Arabs.

Not all bad news if the new owners were to value their holding by the NPV of its future rental income because they might then have a stronger incentive to eliminate empty premises by offering keener rents.

Let's see what happens.